Posts Tagged Banking

The Case for Investing in Life Insurance

Now Could Be the Right Time to Invest in Your Own Health

By:  Barry James Dyke

Key Points

  • Insurance companies do not invest their money in the potentially unstable way that banks do.
  • A mix of term and permanent life insurance is ideal for most investors, though only permanent life offers interest rewards.
  • Life insurance policies should never be created for short-term investing.

Two years ago, presidential candidate John McCain secured initial campaign financing by using his $3 million life insurance policy as collateral.

In 1980, Doris Christopher used a life insurance loan to launch her struggling kitchen gadget company. In 2002, she sold that company—the Pampered Chef—to Warren Buffett for a reported $900 million.

Even in the midst of the Great Depression, J.C. Penney used a loan against his $3 million life insurance policy to resuscitate his retail stores after the 1929 crash.

By this point in our nation’s recession, it is clear that there is no such thing as a perfect investment strategy. As the Dow Jones Industrial Average sits at about 65 percent of its value from 18 months ago, now is an ideal time to learn about the proven benefits, strengths, and versatility of life insurance and annuity investing.

IF IT’S GOOD ENOUGH FOR BANKERS . . .

According to government disclosures, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has a majority of his liquid wealth—between $1 million and $2 million—invested in fixed and variable annuities, which are contracts issued exclusively by life insurance companies that promise guaranteed rates of interest.

What’s more, the 401(k) Thrift Plan for Employees of the Federal Reserve System, according to a 2009 first-quarter Fed report covering 22,000 Fed employees, has 75 percent of its assets—that’s $3.2 billion—invested in its fixed-income fund, which is invested exclusively in annuity contracts underwritten by major U.S. life insurance companies guaranteeing principal and an interest rate of 5.8 percent.

And this is not a new trend. A Deloitte audit affirms that in 2007 and 2006, Fed employees overwhelmingly chose fixed-income annuity funds over volatile mutual funds.

The nation’s large banks invest immense sums of their Tier 1 capital reserves—a bank’s most important asset and a key measure of its strength—into permanent life insurance underwritten by major life insurance companies. (See sidebar “Banking on life insurance” for more details.)

Why do banks look to insurance companies for sound investment? Unlike banks, life insurance companies do not use excessive leverage. If a bank has $1 million on deposit, it can lend out up to $10 million to the public. This leverage is called “fractional reserve lending,” and it can lead to instability. Indeed, excessive leverage is a major reason why banks are failing today and have throughout history.

However, if a life insurance company has $1 million on deposit, that company may loan no more than $920,000, and usually only a fraction of that. As such, life insurers are 100 percent reserve-based lenders, which makes them stable institutions in down economies.

WHY LIFE INSURANCE?

There are two basic types of life insurance: term life, which is essentially a rented policy for a specified period of time; and permanent or “cash-value” life, which is insurance for as long as you live. While a mix of both types of policy proves valuable for most investors, financial rewards are attainable only with permanent life policies. Following are some of the key benefits of investing in permanent life insurance and annuities:

Safety. Permanent life and annuities, when backed by the general account of a life insurance company, contain financial guarantees, are protected by state guarantee funds, and adhere to strict investment portfolio standards. Enormous losses in today’s stock market illuminate the dangers of investing without guarantees. During the Great Depression, when more than 10,000 banks failed, 99.9 percent of consumers’ savings in life insurance and annuities remained safe with legal reserve life insurance companies.

Earnings in addition to guaranteed rates. Although additional earnings above guarantees are not assured, most life companies paid additional earnings even during the Great Depression.

Permanent life insurance and annuities are savings systems. A major problem today in financial planning is that 401(k) and mutual fund marketers have successfully blurred the difference between “saving” and “investing.” When one saves, money is safe and liquid. When one invests, 100 percent of your money is at risk 100 percent of the time.

When you save through permanent life insurance and annuities backed by the insurance company’s general account, your funds are safe, liquid, and tax-favored.

Valuable tax benefits. Savings and earnings within permanent life insurance and annuities grow tax-deferred, and loans from insurance are not taxed as ordinary income. What’s more, insurance proceeds are received income-tax-free and, in most cases, estate-tax-free.

Asset protection. Although asset-protection privileges for lawsuits and bankruptcy vary from state to state, life insurance and annuity assets are a favored asset in all states. States with particularly strong asset protection for life insurance and annuities for today’s physician include Arizona, Florida, Michigan, New York, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Income-tax-free death benefit. Life is a gamble. The greatest risk we face is the risk of premature death. Protecting those people or causes we love with life insurance is a wise allocation of resources.

When the Reverend Jerry Falwell died in 2007, he left $34 million in life insurance to pay off Liberty University’s debts, strengthen that school’s endowment, and provide funding for a Thomas Road Baptist Church. Newer annuities also offer additional life insurance benefits.

Professional money management. Savings within a life insurance company are professionally managed to secure the highest rate of return with the maximum amount of safety. You will enjoy diversification by industry as well as by geography.

Unlike some retirement plans, you have access to your money in a life insurance policy through loans and other options. Today, money within a qualified retirement plan (e.g., pension, 401(k), 403(b), IRA) is money in a straitjacket until retirement. Unfortunately, your money is still subject to market risk, inflation, and lost opportunity cost. Not so with permanent life insurance or annuities that are backed by the insurer’s general account.

Life insurance and annuities can perform additional economic jobs as well. By attaching riders onto base life insurance and annuities, they can provide additional benefits for disability protection, long-term care, critical illness, and retirement funding.

Life insurance and annuities are wills unto themselves. They are able to accommodate multiple and complex beneficiaries, and can be easily changed without legal costs. At your death, they also bypass probate—thus avoiding legal bills, appraisal costs, taxes, and other expenses common even to midsized estates. States with particularly onerous probate costs include California, Connecticut, and Georgia.

GUIDELINES FOR INVESTING

Life insurance and annuity purchases are some of the most important financial decisions you can make. Do not purchase either of them if you plan to do it for only a year; there are costs associated with any investment, and these are long-term planning tools.

Finally, this author prefers mutual life companies over publicly traded stock-based life insurers (although stock companies can be well-run and offer investors great value). Why mutual companies? A mutual company is not a publicly traded entity and does not succumb to the continuous demands and whims of Wall Street. Mutual companies, although not entirely unscathed, have for the most part dodged the stock market meltdown that has hammered their publicly traded counterparts.

Mutual companies, often criticized for being too prudish and conservative, are now pillars of strength. With a mutual company, a physician is technically an owner in the company and receives the profits of the company through dividends and interest—not stock.

If a mutual company does go public at a later date, its investors can enjoy potential rewards of cash, additional insurance, or shares of the new public company—while still maintaining their initial insurance and annuities.

It is wise to work with an adviser who has expertise not just in life insurance and annuities, but who has a working knowledge of taxes, risk management, investments, and economics. Insure your life as you would insure the economic replacement value of your automobile, home, or practice. Your human life is the greatest economic value of them all—the creator of all property values.

As a general rule, the economic replacement value for life insurance for a physician under 40 is 20 to 25 times his annual income. Physicians who are young will need large amounts of term life insurance—pure death benefit protection. As cash flow improves and debts such as student loans are paid down, purchasing permanent life insurance makes economic sense.

When buying life insurance and annuity products with savings components, purchase products that are backed by the general account of the company first. Why? The general account is the heart of any life insurance company and, by design, one of the safest depositories for savings in America today. By choosing general-account-backed products first, all financial risks are shifted onto the insurance company.

When allocating funds to life insurance and annuities as an asset class, a commitment of 10 to 30 percent of one’s portfolio is prudent, since these instruments have stable value and are easily convertible into cash. The nation’s large banks consistently invest between 10 to 30 percent of their reserves—hundreds of millions of dollars—into life insurance and annuity products. There’s every reason for you to do the same.

Send your feedback to meletters@advanstar.com

For more than two and a half decades, Barry James Dyke has advised individuals and corporations about financial planning, employee benefit plans, investments, and other economic issues. He is the author of the book The Pirates of Manhattan, which illuminates the reasons for today’s financial crisis and how to protect your assets in the days ahead. Learn more at http://www.thepiratesofmanhattan.com.

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The Ideal Vehicle For Your Own “Banking System”

If banks, multinational corporations and the wealthiest individuals have purchased dividend-paying, investment-grade, cash-value life insurance for this purpose, why haven’t you, especially when it can be done more efficiently than ever before?

This particular type of mutual life insurance (owned by the policyholders) has always been one of the four tier one assets (core reserves) of banks. Your need for finance is extensive and greater during your lifetime than your need for life insurance at your death.

Here are some of the benefits of owning this essential “banking” vehicle that really should be the conservative foundational base of your wealth triangle.

Access to and use of funds, no penalties
Control of Funds, Flexibility, Simplicity
Liquidity of funds
Foundational for family & business “banking system
Disability waiver of deposits
Ease of implementation & management
Unlimited deposits

Contractual promises backed by un-margined capital
Guaranteed
premiums, cash values, death benefits
Guaranteed dividends once declared
Guaranteed market for resale
Paid Up Additions (PUA) represent 50%-66% of premium*
PUAs create instant Cash Value
PUAs turbo-charge the “Banking system”
Max Accumulation Solve (MAS) Dividend Option Patent vital to “Banking”*

Offers a variety of tax advantages
MAS prevents
“Banking” policy from being a MEC*
Tax deferral
Tax free cash flow
Death benefit income tax free
Death benefit can be Estate Tax free
Step up in basis

100 Plus year track record*
Integrity of management and mission
Dedicated to & supportive of “Banking’ policies*
102 years of consecutive dividends*
Honesty, structure and performance
Management fees nil
Historical long term favorable legislative treatment
Underlying assets very conservative

Personal and Business uses

“Private Banking” System
80% Banking, financing, 20% life Insurance
Creates marketability and stability in business
Cash readily available

Loans at preferred rates, no questions asked
Positive
arbitrage inside policy benefits “Banking”*
Repaid Excess interest
on loan goes to PUA – more cash value & death benefit*
Repaid excess interest credited  to PUA annually *
Generational planning tool
Virtually unlimited leverage of dollars
Asset protection advantages
Charitable giving & planning
Assignability
Legacy creation

The Conservative Foundational Base to all other financial planning
Highly resistant to market volatility
Predicable results
Performance always improves over time
Financial peace of mind
Freedom from having to chase high returns
If used with a solid investment system, it improves net after tax return
Pays for itself  quickly
Safe savings

When mutual dividend participating whole life insurance came into existence almost 200 years ago, it had more characteristics of the banking industry than it did life insurance. It should have been called a “Banking” policy with a death benefit!

*Feature excusive to our “Banking” policy or not common to most other mutual policies

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The Best Trader in the World Is Wildly Bullish on Gold

From Harley – Article worth your reading from one of the best, if not the best, traders in the world. Hope it helps you…

Taipan Daily: The Best Trader in the World Is Wildly Bullish on Gold

By: Justice Litle, Editorial Director, Taipan Publishing Group
Wednesday, November 04, 2009

The “Michael Jordan of trading” is now table-poundingly bullish on gold. And the Reserve Bank of India may have just made him look like a prophet…

John Paulson (no relation to Hank) is widely viewed as the most successful money manager of our times. Paulson made billions of dollars for himself and his investors by finding an obscure, non-public way to bet against the housing bubble. In terms of absolute dollar profit, his subprime crisis score is the largest ever.

Given his success, it is notable that Paulson is now quite bullish on gold. The Paulson Funds have heavy exposure to gold and gold stocks, and even offer an investment vehicle with payouts denominated in gold.

But, for all that, John Paulson is more of an investor than a trader. A trader, in the purist sense of the word, is an opportunistic mercenary type… someone who can raid most any asset class – stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies – and walk away with armloads of cash.

A Trader’s Trader

That is what it makes it even more notable for Paul Tudor Jones – the ultimate trader’s trader, and arguably the most successful pure trader alive today – to be wildly bullish on gold.

Your editor has long been a fan of PTJ (Jones’ initials), seeing him as a sort of market mentor from afar. In the 80s and 90s, PTJ was known as the “Michael Jordan of trading.” After cutting his teeth in the commodity pits, Jones went on to trade most every asset class under the sun in his futures trading fund.

The track record is legendary. PTJ started out with multiple consecutive years of triple-digit returns in the 1980s. He then reputedly made $80 million to $100 million in the 1987 stock market crash… nearly doubled investors’ money again in the 1990 Nikkei crash… and went 20+ years overall with no losing years.

While some fund managers are happy to chat with the press, PTJ prefers to avoid the spotlight as a rule of thumb. After a documentary came out in the 1980s (appropriately called Trader), PTJ decided he didn’t want it out there and bought up all the copies. (You will never see him embracing the public eye.)

A Strong Vote for Gold

Hence the surprise when PTJ came out in his recent quarterly letter pounding the table for gold.

I have never been a gold bug,” Jones writes to his investors. “It is just an asset that, like everything else in life, has its time and place. And now is that time. The economic and political comparisons to the late 1970’s are too numerous to ignore.

The argument is backed up with chart comparisons like the one below:

Gold Reserve Assets

The top chart shows the dollar value of international reserve assets – that is to say, the total worth of central bank holdings around the world – in billions of dollars since 1970.

Over the past 39 years, international reserve holdings have skyrocketed from practically nothing to more than $8 trillion. Meanwhile, the percentage of those holdings counted as gold went from a whopping 70% or so in the late 1970s to near single digits today.

India Lights a Fire

Perhaps fitting, then, that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lit a fire under gold and gold stocks yesterday, sending the yellow metal to nominal record highs. (To break the inflation-adjusted high, gold will have to crack $2,000 per ounce.)

“Gold jumped to a record,” Bloomberg reports, “after India’s central bank bought 200 metric tons of the metal from the International Monetary Fund, heightening speculation that there may be more official purchases.”

The RBI’s actions call to mind a Taipan Daily missive written back in February, “Why the IMF and Fort Knox Won’t Put the Hurt on Gold.”

You can reference the data table in that piece to get a sense of just how much buying the likes of India, China and other major players have left to do if they hope to bring their gold holdings up to snuff.

When asked to describe his competitive edge as a trader, Jones described it this way:

The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge. Because I think there are certain situations where you can absolutely understand what motivates every buyer and seller and have a pretty good picture of what’s going to happen…

With the yellow metal storming the barricades as I write, it appears PTJ’s instincts have set him in good stead once again.

Warm Regards,

Justice Litle,
Editorial Director, Taipan Publishing Group

****

Justice Litle is the Editorial Director for Taipan Publishing Group and the e-letter, Taipan Daily, the free financial e-letter that introduces readers to breaking global trends and investment strategies.

Link to original article:  http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipan-daily-110409.html

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The Public Option in Banking: How We Can Beat Wall Street at Its Own Game

“A worthy read & one worth considering.  Like I’ve said repeatedly, we the people must take control of all our own finances in more ways than one.”  ~ Harley Hunter

The Public Option in Banking:
How We Can Beat Wall Street at Its Own Game

Ellen Brown
August 5, 2009

http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/public_option.php

President Obama has repeated his call for a public option in health care, in order to create some competition for the insurance companies and keep them honest. We the people need to call for a public option in banking, in order to create some competition for the private banks and keep them honest.

In Wall Street’s latest affront to the public trust, the nine mega-banks graced with $125 billion in taxpayer bailout money under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) were reported last week to be paying out billions of dollars in bonuses to their executives. At least 4,793 bankers and traders received more than $1 million each in bonus payments, although it was one of Wall Street’s worst years on record. After months of investigating banker compensation, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo said on July 30, “The repeated explanation from bank executives that bonuses are tied to performance in a manner designed to promote (national economic) growth does not appear to be accurate.”

To say that it was an understatement would be an understatement. The bonuses paid to executives not only were not tied to national economic growth but were not even tied to some reasonable percentage of company profits. In fact they were generally greater than the net income of the banks. Morgan Stanley, for example, had $1.7 billion in earnings and paid $4.475 billion in bonuses. Goldman Sachs had $2.3 billion in earnings and paid $4.8 billion in bonuses. JP Morgan Chase had $5.6 billion in earnings and paid $8.69 billion in bonuses. JP Morgan’s largesse involved showering 1,626 of its favorite execs and traders with bonuses of $1 million or more. For most people, a “bonus” is a few hundred dollars at Christmastime. A million dollars is what you work a lifetime to try to save, and few people reach that goal. Even Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, which have been called zombie banks, paid $5.33 billion and $3.6 billion in bonuses, respectively — although they lost more than $27 billion each in earnings. The bar for merit is apparently so low that you’re entitled to a bonus if your zombie bank simply keeps breathing!

These blatantly inflated bonuses are just the last in a litany of abuses by those same profligate banks that nearly destroyed our economic system. If the derivatives on their books were “marked to market” (valued at what they would fetch on the market), the banks would be bankrupt, and their employees would be out of a job. Instead, they have been allowed to inflate the value of their “toxic” assets – and sell them to the U.S. government at the inflated value. Then they have taken the money they got from the government at these inflated prices and paid back the TARP money they received – allowing them to post inflated earnings and reward themselves with inflated bonuses! Many people feel that these bankers are thieves stealing from the public till who should be looking at jail time. But who is there to stop their parade of outrages? No one in Congress, the White House, or the news media is calling them on the carpet for it. As Senator Dick Durbin said recently, Wall Street owns Congress; and that is also true of the major media.

We may not be able to stop them, but we can join them. We the people need to play the bankers’ game ourselves. Even corporate giants such as General Motors and WalMart have now gotten into the banking game and are easing their credit problems by forming their own banks. The U.S. public sector is late to the party. States, counties, public universities could take the lucrative system the private banking industry has created for itself and turn it to productive use in the public interest.

Keeping the Banks Honest with Some Public Competition

In President Obama’s July 17 weekly address, he repeated his call for a public option in health care, in order to “increase competition and keep insurance companies honest” and to “put an end to the worst practices of the insurance industry.” The same call needs to be made for a public option in banking. In some countries, publicly-owned banks have operated alongside privately-owned banks for decades; and in those countries, the current crisis has served to show that public banks generally do a better job of serving the people and protecting their interests than their private counterparts.

In Canada, the trendsetter in public banking is the province of Alberta. Alberta’s publicly-owned banking system, called Alberta Treasury Branches or ATB, was initiated during the Great Depression to give the private banks a run for the public’s money. According to a government publication titled “These Are the Facts: An Authentic Record of Alberta’s Progress, 1935-1948”:

“The Treasury Branch system enables the people to pool their financial resources and to use these resources for their mutual benefit thereby enabling them to progressively free themselves from the stranglehold of the existing financial monopoly. These Treasury Branches provide effective competition for chartered banks thereby ensuring banking services at reasonable rates.”

From 1929 to 1933, the average annual income in Alberta had fallen from $548 to $212, a staggering 61 percent drop. Interest payments continued to bleed the farmers of cash, and taxes had increased. In 1935, Albertans decided they wanted a change and swept the Alberta Social Credit Party into power. In 1938, the system of Alberta Treasury Branches was set up literally as a branch of the provincial government. The stated goal of the ATB was to “provide the people with alternative facilities for gaining access to their credit resources.” Bankers initially scoffed at Alberta’s attempts to establish a competing economic system, but Albertans had high hopes and rushed to deposit their meager savings in the Treasury Branches. The government invested in the ATB only once, contributing $200,000 in 1938. That was all that was necessary, as the system was self-funding after that. By 1946, the ATB was turning an annual profit of $65,000. According to a booklet titled “Albertans Investing in Alberta 1938-1998,” by 1998 the ATB had remitted $68 million to the provincial government.

In India, public sector banks also operate alongside private sector banks. Privatization has made significant inroads into India’s banking system, but fully 80 percent of the country’s banks are still government-owned. Before the current crisis, neoliberals criticized India’s public banks for being oriented more toward serving the customer than turning a profit; but studies showed that the public sector banks were out-performing the private sector banks in terms of customer satisfaction. Today, when the credit crisis has hit the aggressive private international banks particularly hard, customers are fleeing into the safety of India’s public sector banks, which have emerged largely unscathed from the credit debacle. The public banks have been credited with keeping the country’s financial industry robust at a time when the private international banks are suffering their worst crisis since the 1930s.

In China, private-sector banking has also made some inroads; but state-owned banks still predominate. In a June 2009 article titled “The Chinese Puzzle: Why Is China Growing When Other Export Powerhouses Aren’t?”, Brad Setser noted that nearly all countries relying heavily on exports for growth have experienced major downturns and remain in the doldrums — except for China. When China’s external markets fell off, the government turned its credit machine inward to domestic development. Its state-owned banks engaged in a huge increase in lending, with local governments and state enterprises borrowing on a large scale. The result was to create a real fiscal stimulus that put workers to work and got money circulating again in the economy.

In the United States, the trendsetter in public banking is the state of North Dakota, which has owned its own bank for nearly a century. North Dakota is one of only two states (along with Montana) that are currently not facing budget shortfalls. Ever since 1919, North Dakota’s revenues have been deposited in the state-owned Bank of North Dakota (BND). Under the “fractional reserve” lending scheme open to all banks, these deposits are then available for leveraging many times over as loans. Other banks in the state do not see the BND as a threat because it partners with them and backstops them, serving as a sort of central bank for the state. BND’s loans are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) but are guaranteed by the state. North Dakota has plenty of money for student loans, makes 1% loans to startup farms, has the lowest unemployment rate in the country, and is generally not feeling the pinch of the credit crisis at all.

Theory and Practice: The Proof Is in the Pudding

A bank charter brings with it the privilege of creating “credit” simply as an accounting entry on the bank’s books. The flaw in the private banking scheme is that banks create the principal portion of their loans but not the interest, which is continually drawn off the top as profit. New borrowers must continually be found to take out new loans to create this extra profit, making private banking effectively a pyramid scheme; and like any pyramid scheme, it has mathematical limits. Today, those limits appear to have been reached. Personal and national debts have gotten so large relative to incomes that it is no longer possible to maintain the fiction of solvency. We soon won’t have the money even to pay the interest on our existing debts, let alone to incur new ones. Public banking does not suffer from that flaw, because interest is not drawn out of the system but is returned to the public coffers. Public banking is thus mathematically sound and sustainable.

That is the theory, but there is nothing so persuasive as putting it to the test. Like with the public option in health care, we need to pit the public banking option against the private banking option and see which works best. My money is on the public option.

Ellen Brown developed her research skills as an attorney practicing civil litigation in Los Angeles. In Web of Debt, her latest book, she turns those skills to an analysis of the Federal Reserve and “the money trust.” She shows how this private cartel has usurped the power to create money from the people themselves, and how we the people can get it back. Her earlier books focused on the pharmaceutical cartel that gets its power from “the money trust.” Her eleven books include Forbidden Medicine, Nature’s Pharmacy (co-authored with Dr. Lynne Walker), and The Key to Ultimate Health (co-authored with Dr. Richard Hansen). Her websites are www.webofdebt.com and www.ellenbrown.com.

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Option ARM Resets

Presenting the Most Profitable Event of the Next 2 Years

By Ian Cooper
Tuesday, July 14th, 2009

Investors are getting it. . .

In fact, they’re figuring out what the bullish talking heads of CNBC can’t—or won’t.

It’s what we’re calling the biggest profit opportunity of the next two years.

Of course, CNBC’s goons aren’t the only ones to miss it. . .

Remember when Richard Fuld told us the worst of the crisis was “behind us”?

Or when FDIC Chairman Sheila Barr said we were in the 7th inning?

Or when Morgan Stanley said we were in the 3rd?

See a pattern developing here?

You see, the worst is far from over. The President is aware of this. Even the director of the president’s National Economic Council believes the worst isn’t over, saying, “‘It’s very likely that more jobs will be lost. It would not be surprising if GDP has not yet reached its low.”

So, what is it CNBC bulls know that we don’t?

Nothing.  They’re pandering to the corporate elitists who sign their checks. And what they’re not telling brings us to…

The most profitable event of the next 2 years…

As we’ve been warning for months, the next phase of the real estate disaster is upon us. It’s just shifted from subprime to Option ARM.

And with many economists predicting unemployment will rise into the double digits, foreclosures will only accelerate, which will add to bank losses, which will add pressure to the financial system and broader economy.

The Fed is well aware of what’s coming. Why do you think they’re so desperate to pump up the economy before the next fiasco?

Truth is, the amount of debt wrapped up in these Option ARMs is much worse than that of subprime. And if the government or the banks fail to understand this, the second round we’ve been warning about will begin and banking instability will wreak havoc yet again.

Option ARM resets will be tougher for the economy to handle than subprime. And we will see greater numbers of bank failures, job losses, foreclosures, delinquencies, and economic hardships.

Honest.

Look at what the Wall Street Journal had to say this weekend:

For the third straight month, option adjustable-rate mortgages are generating proportionally more delinquencies and foreclosures than subprime mortgages, the scourge of the housing crisis.

A further acceleration of troubles among the loans could mean higher-than-expected losses for Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), as well as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s own insurance fund.

“The realization of the issues related to option ARMs is just beginning,” says Chris Marinac, director of research at Atlanta-based FIG Partners.

The Year of Option ARM Resets. . . and Why There’s No Foreseeable Bottom.

Just as 2007 and 2008 were the years of subprime woes, this one will go down as the year of Option ARM resets (or adjustable rate mortgage resets). With billions in Option ARM resets in 2009 and 2010, this crisis is about to unleash a fury no one’s prepared for.

It won’t be as bad as subprime, of course. It’ll be worse.

resets2009
That’s because lenders created these ARMs with “teaser” features for borrowers, which included making lower minimal payments for the first few years before the loan reset to a higher payment schedule. And if that weren’t bad enough, there was another feature called “negative amortization,” which meant you weren’t paying back any principal.

In fact, with negative amortization loans, your loan balance increased over time. Incredulously, every time you made a payment, you owed the bank even more. These are the loans that allowed consumers to buy houses they couldn’t otherwise afford.

As for speculators, they may use negative amortization loans if they believe prices will increase at a fast pace. But with the opposite happening, they’re out of luck.

And the banks will be left holding the bag.

What should concern you is that about $750 billion worth of option adjustable mortgages (option ARMs) were issued between 2004 and 2007. . . and will begin resetting shortly. And banks like Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, and Wells Fargo are in for a rough ride, given their exposure to option ARMs.

Worse, as of December 2008, about 28% of option ARMs were delinquent or in foreclosure, according to reports. Compare that to the 23% default rate in September 2008. And nearly 61% of option ARMs originated in 2007 “will eventually default,” according to a Goldman Sachs report.

What will happen is this: many borrowers, if they haven’t already, will start throwing in the towel as they realize just how far under water they really are. And the likes of JP Morgan (JPM) could be heavily and negatively impacted.

One thing’s for certain. . . we’ll be paying for someone else’s mistake yet again.

Good Investing,

Ian L. Cooper
http://www.wealthdaily.com

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